What 15+ years in the military taught me: Prepare when others don’t. In crisis, those who swim against the current stay afloat.

Before 24th February 2022, I was often laughed at for my “power anxiety”, my “oversized solar installation” and my apparent stupidity in spending extra money on building technology.

I have laughed at my mum myself, when she still stocked up on canned foods in the 1990s, telling her that war was over.

There would be many more examples of counter-cyclical behavior to tell. However, nothing summarizes the need for counter-cyclical behavior better than doing military service.

The Peaceful Years

I was summoned to national service in the Swiss Armed Forces when I was 19 years old. The year was 2001, and Europe was peaceful. Talking about the enemy coming from the East was more of a joke than a tactical principle at that time.

Then came 9/11. I remember how we learned about the attacks in Washington and New York during a break in an army exercise. For a short period, we thought all hell would break loose and we would soon become the new war-time generation.

However, despite all the havoc breaking loose in Afghanistan in the wake of 9/11, Europe remained largely peaceful.

Countries happily reduced their defense budgets and capabilities, focusing more on countering terrorism than on defending a military adversary.

In the meantime, I became an active reserve officer in 2006. I went on to command a company, deputize the commander of a battalion, and finally take over staff functions in the General Staff.

Lots of people asked me if it was worth spending all that time in the military.

“There won’t be any conventional wars in the future.”

“Why don’t we spend the money on education rather than for some old-school guys playing war.”

COVID-19

Then came COVID-19. Switzerland mobilized 8’000 troops to assist the health system. I was mobilized for 8 weeks — at a time I had to get a young company through a major crisis, and with three kids in homeschooling.

After the lockdowns, many people still didn’t think an army capable of defending a military adversary was necessary. Hey, the new adversary is a virus. How do you want to combat a virus with tanks and fighter jets?

The War Is Back

Then came February 24th, 2022. War came back to Europe. Within weeks, defense budgets in several European countries were increased significantly. My critical friends suddenly started asking me about tank tactics, our defense capabilities, and how I would judge the situation and its development.

Why could I answer these questions? Because by behaving counter-cyclically, I accumulated over 15 years of experience as an active reserve officer of the Swiss Armed Forces. There wasn’t a single year in those 15+ years I didn’t spend time in the military, exercising and training.

Well-trained soldiers and officers are the core of any army. You can’t create them just in time when a threat appears at your front door. Furthermore, some functions need experience: If nobody would have served during the peaceful years from 1990–2021, there wouldn’t be any senior officers today. Just cadets.

The same is true for military equipment. In times of crisis and war, things like tanks and fighter jets are in high demand and can’t be procured just in time. Investments into defense capability need to be continuous, also in peaceful times when they might seem unnecessary.

Think Long-Term

Last but not least, a military force is a long-term investment rather than an ad-hoc instrument. Just as you can’t ignore investing in tanks and fighter jets in peaceful times, you shouldn’t forget about cyber security and public health during a conventional war.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb used the term “invest in preparedness, not in prediction” in his famous book, The Black Swan. Be prepared for just about every adversary situation, rather than talking about the probabilities of a certain threat becoming reality.

That’s equally true for military threats, stocking up medical kits and vaccines against pandemic threats before COVID-19 hits the live tickers, or investing in renewable energy long before an energy crisis.

Swimming against the current has served me well so far, and I will continue doing it. Even at the expense of being laughed at over many years.