In a world of constant crisis, black swans and rare crises are over. Ravens are the next crisis animals – smart and in flocks.

Once upon a time in the West, there were 30 years without crises. Between 1990 and 2019, we enjoyed an endless upturn, growing wealth, less pain, and thus more time for self-actualization.

When the odd crisis occurred once in a decade, people would talk about a “black swan” — a term borrowed from Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, written in 2007.

Well, how improbable are high-impact events in today’s world? Let’s compare the period from 1990 to 2019 to the troubled times we currently live in.

Black Swans Are Rare

Black swans are rare, explaining the times the book was written. 2007 was just about halfway between 1990 and 2019, which was the period when the West lived the life of a lifetime without much crisis.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb describes the black swan as having three properties: First, a black swan is an outlier event. Second, its impact is extreme, either positive or negative. Third, black swans have retrospective predictability: Once they have occurred, it becomes pretty obvious that something like that could happen.

The best example of a black swan is the COVID-19 pandemic, which also concluded the good times of 1990 to 2019. It was only a matter of time before a pandemic would break out, and I’m sure it wasn’t the last pandemic we’ll see during our lifetimes.

However, the COVID-19 pandemic set loose a few other things that laid the foundation for the troubled times we currently live in:

Governments spent a ton of money on supporting businesses during the pandemic, leaving the coffers empty after the end of the pandemic. We now feel it when the continent is trying to rearm without breaking debt ceilings and other peace-time constructs.

By enforcing anti-pandemic measures such as the obligation to wear masks or get vaccinated, populations were split and polarized, setting the ground for more polarized politics. Hello Donald.

During the pandemic, we forgot that Russia started a territorial war already in 2014.

During the pandemic, we also forgot that climate change is rapidly accelerating.

Last but not least, as soon as Russia started its full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022, it became obvious how dependent on Russian energy Europe is.

Do you still think the black swan theory reflects our troubled times?

Enter the Age of Ravens

Let’s change the animal here. Ravens are seen as clever problem solvers. In contrast, their eerie calls associate them with the mysterious and unknown. In many mythologies, ravens are connected to life, death, and the afterlife. And in contrast to black swans, ravens are numerous and operate in flocks.

Doesn’t the image of ravens reflect our times much better than the image of the black swan? In the years to come, we will have to deal with multiple connected crises. Just like ravens, expect the crises to act cleverly, and to coordinate between them like a flock of ravens.

There isn’t a world without crises. The ravens just enjoyed a 30-year vacation, like all of us in the West did.