A thought experiment for entrepreneurs based on our experience with COVID-19, teleporting it into a world of technology and multiple crises

In today’s world, a lot can go wrong. Everything is connected, and the consequences of seemingly small events can be huge.

But today, let’s look at a huge thing that can go wrong: Pandemics. We have all experienced what a pandemic means back in 2020, when COVID-19 struck.

This article is not about looking back on COVID-19, but about the possibility of dealing with a future pandemic. Let’s dive into a thought experiment.

The Scenario

We’re in the year 2035. COVID has mutated many times over the past 15 years, bringing new waves and mutations each year. Society has grown accustomed to a back-and-forth of temporary lockdowns and other limited measures.

In Switzerland, my home country, a new Federal Agency for Pandemics was set up in 2030. This agency now continuously analyzes the development of COVID by using artificial intelligence. Under the Pandemic AI Act passed in 2032, the Federal Agency for Pandemics largely automates the triggering and lifting of measures for regions, municipalities, and individuals. The measures range from pandemic alert state 1 (normal state) to pandemic alert state 5 (lockdown).

A majority of the population supports this modus operandi, but society is fragmented. It is unclear whether the Pandemic AI Act triggered the rise of two protest parties on the extreme left and right.

So, how does the artificial intelligence that manages the pandemic work in detail? Giving rise to the technological progress, situation monitoring and decision making for fighting transmissible diseases were largely handed over to AI. As a small country, Switzerland wasn’t a forerunner, but a follower: The EU has imposed stringent restrictions on the movement of people and goods with neighboring states that lack comparable pandemic control measures.

The AI system processes all health data of Swiss residents in real time, collected via Internet-of-Things devices, biosensors, and electronic patient records. Based on all this data, the AI system automatically increases or decreases the pandemic alert state, triggering or lifting protective measures.

What Does This Mean for Entrepreneurs?

Back to reality, back to 2025.

I didn’t invent this thought experiment myself. I took it from a crisis management exercise I teach regularly. The exercise aims to train participants in what we call a multi-crisis: A pandemic, a flood, and a wave of refugees hit the crisis team simultaneously.

To all the entrepreneurs out there, does the term “multi-crisis” sound familiar? In my experience as the Founder & CEO of Yonder, a B2B SaaS company, a crisis is hardly ever isolated from other crises. So it’s probably a good idea to get familiar with handling multiple crises. Exercises prepare you for the necessary situations before adversity hits.

Furthermore, thought experiments are a good practice for entrepreneurs. Most of us are still blindfolded by the good times now past, and we have trouble thinking the unthinkable.

Do you need help getting started to think the unthinkable? Don’t worry, you’re not alone. I have summarized my thoughts on crisis attitude and preparation in an eBook you can download for free.

Happy reading!