Geopolitics disrupts travel. Energy disrupts costs. AI disrupts jobs. Here’s how entrepreneurs turn all three into opportunity.

The world is changing, and it’s changing faster than ever. Geopolitics, energy, jobs: Everything is on the line.

Is this threatening? Yes and no. It’s threatening to people unwilling or unable to adapt. But it’s a huge opportunity for optimists and entrepreneurs — provided you are ready to question everything, let go of old habits, and build new business models.

Let’s get down to the details.

What Is Changing?

Geopolitics

10 years ago, I helped grow Xovis, a startup, out of Switzerland. We sold people counting solutions for airports and retail, consisting of stereo vision sensors that had to be installed in the ceiling and a software solution for analytics. For every proposal, we had to go on-site to plan the location of those sensors. In those days, the A380 was my main means of transportation, shuttling me between Zurich, Dubai, Singapore, and Sydney regularly.

Gone are the days when you could just board a flight to any country at short notice and be sure not to land at an airport that is threatened by Iranian missile attacks. Gone are the days when airlines could fly through any country’s airspace.

Energy

In the good old days, we debated migrating from fossil to renewable fuels to avoid even more CO2 emissions and to curb climate change.

Then came COVID-19 and the war in Ukraine, and climate change disappeared from news feeds. Nevertheless, climate change is still threatening our lives and our economies.

Then came the war against Hamas, and the Ukraine war disappeared from European news feeds.

And then came the war of Israel and the United States against Iran, and suddenly, energy was back in the news. With 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas being trapped behind the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices rose sharply.

Oil and liquefied natural gas are one thing, but have you thought about all the ripple-on effects? Oil is the central resource for making plastics. Imagine what would happen to modern life if suddenly, we experienced a resource crunch in plastics.

Jobs

Everybody talks about AI. Opinions range from “it will destroy all office jobs” to “it’s the biggest tech bubble we have ever seen.”

No matter what job you have, and no matter whether you’re optimistic or pessimistic about AI, this technology will change our lives for good. It’s less about resisting AI and more about adapting to AI.

But AI is not the only thing that threatens your job. In dire economic times, many companies try to reduce costs, which often means job cuts. So maybe you need to rethink the concepts of a “safe job” or “employment for life.”

What Can You Do?

Scenario Planning

Irrespective of whether you’re an entrepreneur or a private person, the best thing to do in an uncertain world is scenario planning. Gone are the days of stable budgets, bright outlooks, and core assumptions that are valid for many years into the future.

For both entrepreneurs and private persons, scenario planning comes down to one thing: Money.

Will I still have a job by the end of this year? What do we do if half our aviation customers go bankrupt due to soaring fuel prices? What happens to our liquidity if energy prices or server costs double every 5 months? What if mortgage rates increase, or your bank decides not to renew your mortgage when it becomes due?

You need a good tool for scenario planning, not a static budget. If you’re interested in such a tool, I built a playbook with an Excel template to do just that. It’s inspired by my entrepreneurial finance tool, but adapted for private persons.

Adapt

People don’t like change. Not even those who claim to be innovative and open to new challenges. Now add organizational resistance to change to individual resistance to change, and things will move slower and slower whilst technological progress gets faster and faster:

Digital transformation is a marathon, not a sprint. Martec's Law explains the reasons for this, and what you can do to stay relevant.

This phenomenon is called Martec’s Law, and AI decisively fuels the gap between technological and organizational change. The disruption in energy markets has the same potential to change technology for good.

Now it’s your turn to decide if you want to adapt or resist — survival is optional.

Conclusion

It’s easy to get frustrated by all the bad news and the changes for the worse in today’s world. But every piece of bad news and every change also presents an opportunity.

Now it’s up to you if you want to complain or grab the bull by its horns.